How ironic. My first ever blog post is about Fantasy Football. I am struggling to decide who to draft this year. I am currently at pick 4 in one of my drafts and one I am at a crossroads between picks. With the first 3 picks in my league being Phillip Rivers (yeah, I know, I am too tired to laugh any more), Drew Brees, and AP (my only opinion of a sensible pick thus far), I am at a crossroad that I didn't think would be possible here. I have to decide between drafting Arian Foster and Chris Johnson...what a tough decision!
Problem #1 - For me, it's way to early in the pre-season to make this decision. With a pick this high, it has to be money. You can't afford to make a bad pick from this position. I need this guy to be big for me.
Here is where my comparison currently stands:
The numbers:
Chris Johnson - 316 carries, 1364 yds, 11 TDs. 44 catches, 245 yds, 1 TD
Arian Foster - 326 carries, 1614, 16 TDs. 66 catches 604 yds, 2 TDs
Numbers obviously favor Arian Foster.
If numbers were the only thing that mattered in fantasy football, this would be the easy decision but there is sooooo much more to it than that. Let's take a closer look
The Intangibles
This will be Arian Foster's 2nd season as a starter, this does not fare well for guys in this position. I have seen it all too many times where a player has a monster year, and then in the next year, their numbers decline somewhat. Ray Rice (small change, but decline none the less), Matt Forte (invisible in the 09 season), and Dominick Davis (former Texan and Rookie of the year) all come to mind when I think of this. The reason I use these guys is because none of them were mega stars in college, but had a surprising breakout season then a decline. Arian Foster is also coming off of arthroscopic knee surgery the February, and while this may not sound like a big deal, knee surgery on a RB is scary. One thing that was brought to my attention was although the Texans have a solid O-Line, they lost a key person in the running game, FB, Vonte Leach (thanks Marlon). If you think this is not a big deal, ask LaDanian Tomlinson about losing his full back in San Diego. Another thing to worry about is the return of Ben Tate. For those of you who don't recall, Ben Tate was going to be the starter for Houston last year, but had a season-ending ankle injury that ended his season before it started thus making the way for Foster. While I don't think this will be a significant loss of carries, I don't see a scenario where Tate doesn't take at least 50 carries from Foster this season. I think if Tate pans out, this becomes yet another 2-back system in hopes to preserve both backs for a longer amount of time. Finally, Arian Foster has a hamstring injury. Hamstrings are one of those nagging injuries that can mess with a guy for the entire season. This is a major concern for me.
All that being said, the Texans have a very favorable schedule with a division filled with teams that are very weak against the run. Not to mention, their schedule also includes Carolina, Cleveland, and Cincy which are all favorable matchups for a RB. Foster also has the advantage of a having the best receiver in football on his team. Andre Johnson, will definitely open up the run game for Foster. With AJ being in the lineup, there is no way you can put 8 in the box to stop the run.
As far as Chris Johsnon is concerned, there are only a couple of things that bother me. First and foremost, the guy hasn't even shown up to camp yet. You can't draft a guy who is not even playing yet. Secondly, Chris is looking for a big payday. I am afraid that if he gets this big payday, he could become the next Albert Haynesworth or Larry Johnson. We know all too well how those paydays worked out for Washington and Kansas City. CJ also lacks the prolific passing game that is found in Houston which means that teams can put 8 in the box and cause problems for the Titans run game.
The upside to CJ is that he has already had the declining 2nd year (last year) so he should be fine. He also has a favorable schedule (same division as Houston) with favorable match-ups against Cleveland, Buffalo, Bengals, and Panthers. CJ has proven to be a durable back as he has played 47 of the 48 games in his 3 year career.
As you can see, I am in a very tough spot here. I still have approximately 13 days to make a decision, but that is both a blessing and a curse. So if you are wondering who I am going to draft...well, so am I.
S4
